The Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves
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- Author：Matt Ridley
- ISBN：0061452068
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Summary
“Ridley writes with panache， wit， and humor and displays remarkable ingenuity in finding ways to present complicated materials for the lay reader。” — Los Angeles Times
In a bold and provocative interpretation of economic history， Matt Ridley， the New York Times-bestselling author of Genome and The Red Queen， makes the case for an economics of hope， arguing that the benefits of commerce， technology， innovation， and change—what Ridley calls cultural evolution—will inevitably increase human prosperity。 Fans of the works of Jared Diamond （Guns， Germs， and Steel）， Niall Ferguson （The Ascent of Money）， and Thomas Friedman （The World Is Flat） will find much to ponder and enjoy in The Rational Optimist。
In a bold and provocative interpretation of economic history， Matt Ridley， the New York Times-bestselling author of Genome and The Red Queen， makes the case for an economics of hope， arguing that the benefits of commerce， technology， innovation， and change—what Ridley calls cultural evolution—will inevitably increase human prosperity。 Fans of the works of Jared Diamond （Guns， Germs， and Steel）， Niall Ferguson （The Ascent of Money）， and Thomas Friedman （The World Is Flat） will find much to ponder and enjoy in The Rational Optimist。
Reviews
Brent Maxwell
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A fantastic book that helps us understand why doomsaying is so boring。 It's irrational and leads people to either do the wrong things， or do things that take us backwards。 Optimism is rational and helps move the world forward: a pretty simple idea！ A fantastic book that helps us understand why doomsaying is so boring。 It's irrational and leads people to either do the wrong things， or do things that take us backwards。 Optimism is rational and helps move the world forward: a pretty simple idea！ 。。。more
Edkallenn Lima
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De fato é um livro muito， muito bom。Mas tem alguns pequenos problemas。 A excessiva defesa do modelo tradicional de mercado capitalista exacerbando as qualidades e diminuindo ou até ocultando seus defeitos não me parece interessante para alguém que até estes pontos argumentou de forma tão brilhante。Mesmo com esses problemas， vale a leitura。É um bom livro！
Elizabeth
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2
Peter Trifonov
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Ако някой от вас се е забъркал в конспиративни теории， тази книга ще ви излекува ;）
Arun Narayanaswamy
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Top stuff on understanding how the world/humankind operates。 It’s difficult to pin point what the book focuses on， but it’s a book on general positivity on economies， growth， industrialisation， and almost everything。 It’s a fact filled explanation of why we all we prosper more and why the world is a great place to be。 A must read， there is no fluff in this！！
Gauri A
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A gem of a book ， of the most profoundly simple premise - that human ingenuity is collective 。 Key ideas -1。 At some point ， human intelligence became collective and cumulative in a way that happened to no other species 。 It is a section among ideas not genes 。 Evolution became cumulative because of sex ， progress became cumulative because ideas had sex 。 Culture began to evolve， compete ， select - just as genes did for billions of years （ Dawkins - meme）。 Exchange became to cultural evolution w A gem of a book ， of the most profoundly simple premise - that human ingenuity is collective 。 Key ideas -1。 At some point ， human intelligence became collective and cumulative in a way that happened to no other species 。 It is a section among ideas not genes 。 Evolution became cumulative because of sex ， progress became cumulative because ideas had sex 。 Culture began to evolve， compete ， select - just as genes did for billions of years （ Dawkins - meme）。 Exchange became to cultural evolution what sex was to biological evolution 。 This led to division of labour ， specialisation and innovation I。e time to invest time in a tool making tool 。 Hallmark of high standard of life is diverse consumption ， specialised production 。 Catallaxy as defined by Hayek - growing division of labour leading to ever expanding possibilities 2。 Macaulay - on what principle is it that when we see nothing but improvement behind us are we to expect nothing but deterioration before us ？ Alarmists are fashionable but have been disastrous on their predictive accuracy forever 。 Think Malthus ， Paul Ehrlrich 。 The latest resistance to GM crops predicting global doom 。 Pessimists mistake is extrapolationism - assuming the future is a bigger version of the past ， which is seldom true 。 3。 Past booms came to end by allocating too little money to innovation and too much to asset price inflation ， war ， corruption or theft e。g Spain wasting Peruvian silver riches on war ， Dutch disease （ resource curse ） ， the West misspending windfall of Chinese savings in 2008。 Country books end when there is an exhaustion of resources and go back to self sufficiency 4 。 Growth of trust for global trade started with sending relatives abroad as agents - hence trading communities like Jews ， Gujaratis are found at all ports in the world 。 Wellington armies in Spain were financed becauseof Rothschild ！ Omidyar founded e-bay leverage trust based review systems 。 If trust grows ， mutual service evolves with very little transactional friction 。 Lack of trust was what created the banking collapse of 2008。 Both sides gain， in markets for goods and services 5。 Capitalism offends intellectuals cause it renders them redundant 。 Intelligentsia has derided commerce since origin - note Shakespeare’s caustic words for Shylock 。 Market treated as a necessary evil and believed to corrupt peoples honour 。 Prudence of Mill and Rothschild was a less bloody virtue than courage or honour or faith of the Bonapartes or Habsburgs though it makes better fiction 。 Most unimaginable cruelty receded with commerce - 19th century made slavery ， child labour cock fighting go out of favour ， 20th was for racism sexism and child molestation to become unacceptable 。 Nation of shopkeepers abolished slavery - like new age entrepreneurs today fund compassion projects 6。 Brink Lindsey diagnoses the coincidence of wealth with toleration leads to a bizarre paradox of a conservative movement that embraces economic change but hates its social consequences （ the right ） and a liberal movement that loves social consequences but hates their economic source （ the left ） 。 One side denounced capitalism but gobbled up its fruits ， the other cursed the fruits while defending the system that bore them ！ 7。 The story of energy 。 Once upon a time all work was done by man’s muscles 。 Result was pyramids and leisure for few ， drudgery for the many 。 Energy progressed fromHuman to animal to water to wind to fossil fuel 。 It is fossil fuels that have made slavery uneconomic 。 Timber ， peat coal are ways of capturing the suns energy 。 The secret of the industrial revolution was shifting from current solar power to stored solar power 。 Which is why biofuels are so silly ， they regress from using hydrocarbons to carbohydrates threatening rainforest’s and land that could be used to grow food 8。 Perfect markets are a lunacy 。 There is no equilibrium in nature only a constant dynamism 。 Hence technology is always forward marching 。 The greatest impact comes long after the technology is first invented ， it comes when technology is democratised， giving everybody access to the privileges of the rich 9。 Innovation happens by tinkering。 Businessmen not thinking boffins with hard heads and clever fingers 。。。more
Marek Sirkovský
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As a free-market enthusiast， I enjoyed it。
Hayden Hamilton
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This book and Factfulness together make a very strong case for why the world is continually getting better （and why the media is so excited about portraying the opposite）。 The chapter on global warming at the end I thought was particularly compelling because you rarely hear anything this nuanced or data driven in the debate。
Rob Alison
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Absolutely Incredible。 This book is filled with hope for humanity and proves that life really is getting better。Being an optimist can get tough when the media constantly sells bad news。 But if you take a step back， human beings are an incredible species that continue to adapt and overcome while improving the lives of billions。
Babrak
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Great book。 A new perspective on life and the world。
Jefferson Bourdeau
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I think a more accurate title for this book is :The Pretentiously Libertarian Optimist。 I agree with the author’s general optimism for the future and the concept of mixing ideas to make new ideas。 Exchange does breed progress。 But， He tries really hard to jam his contemporary libertarian views into book。 It’s clunky and almost nonsensical sometimes （for example the way he praises fossil fuels and condemns renewables… bro made of whole list of past naysayers， nonbelievers and pessimists who dismi I think a more accurate title for this book is :The Pretentiously Libertarian Optimist。 I agree with the author’s general optimism for the future and the concept of mixing ideas to make new ideas。 Exchange does breed progress。 But， He tries really hard to jam his contemporary libertarian views into book。 It’s clunky and almost nonsensical sometimes （for example the way he praises fossil fuels and condemns renewables… bro made of whole list of past naysayers， nonbelievers and pessimists who dismissed new/undeveloped technology that ate now robust/ubiquitous technologies but somehow he ended being a naysayer/pessimist for renewable energy。） It was a very frustrating read for me because I fundamentally agree with him in a lot of ways yet I fundamentally disagree with him in a lot more ways。 Matt， you’re smart but not that smart， get over yourself and your “fashionable” libertarian views。 。。。more
Gordon Larsen
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I added this to my list several years ago after hearing Matt Ridley on a podcast and thinking， "this guy makes tons of sense。" It was an excellent and fascinating read。 I write that recognizing that I'm closely aligned with Ridley's worldview and was predisposed to like the book and agree with most of it。 If I compare it with other books with similar themes that I’ve read din resent years， it seems like a mix of "More from Less" by Andrew McAfee， "Guns， Germs， and Steel" by Jared Diamond， with a I added this to my list several years ago after hearing Matt Ridley on a podcast and thinking， "this guy makes tons of sense。" It was an excellent and fascinating read。 I write that recognizing that I'm closely aligned with Ridley's worldview and was predisposed to like the book and agree with most of it。 If I compare it with other books with similar themes that I’ve read din resent years， it seems like a mix of "More from Less" by Andrew McAfee， "Guns， Germs， and Steel" by Jared Diamond， with a bit of "The White Man's Burden" by William Easterly mixed in。 Ridley focuses on trade and specialization as the primary forces explaining the arc of human progress， he discusses the importance of the democratic institutions that unleash and protect those market forces， emphasizes the importance of innovation， and he cheerfully corrects the pessimistic views of lots of folks always predicting that we're on the brink of catastrophe for one reason or another。 Along the way he criticizes （politely and with lots of data） trends of organic farming， foolish opposition to GMO's， Malthusian population controls， the obsession with "green" energy， biofuels， government funded research， and much more。A few of my favorite quotes:"The lesson of the last two centuries is that liberty and welfare march hand in hand with prosperity and trade。" （pg。 109）"[A] country's economic freedom predicts its prosperity better than its mineral wealth， education system or infrastructure do。" （pg。 117）"This is not to imply that non-renewable resources are the infinite—of course not。 The Atlantic Ocean is not infinite， but that does not mean you have to worry about bumping into Newfoundland if you row a dinghy out of a harbour in Ireland。 Some things are finite but vast; some things are infinitely renewable， but very limited。 Non-renewable resources such as coal are sufficiently abundant to allow an expansion of both economic activity and population to the point where they can generate sustainable wealth for all the people of the planet without hitting a Malthusian ceiling， and can then hand the baton to some other form of energy。" （pg。 217）"The inescapable fact is that most technological change comes from attempts to improve existing technology。 It happens on the shop floor among apprentices and mechicals， or in the workplace among the users of computer programs， and only rarely as a result of the application and transfer of knowledge from the ivory towers of the intelligentsia。" （pg。 258）"The question is not 'Can we go on as we are？' because of course the answer is 'No'， but how best can we encourage the necessary torrent of change that will enable the Chinese and the Indians and even the Africans to live as prosperously as Americans do today。" （pg。 282）"Embracing dynamism means opening your mind to the possibility of posterity making a better world rather than preventing a worse one。 We now know， as we did not in the 1960's， that more than six billion people can live upon the planet in improving health， food security and life expectancy and that this is compatible with cleaner air， increasing forest cover and some booming populations of elephants。" （pg。 303）。"In short， the extreme climate outcomes are so unlikely， and depend on such wild assumptions， that they do not dent my optimism one jot。 If there is a 99 percent chance that the world's poor can grow much richer for a century while still emitting carbon dioxide， then who am I to deny them that chance？ After all， the richer they get the less weather dependent their economies will be and the more affordable they will find adaption to climate change。" （pg。 333）"It is as if the recent emphasis on climate change has sucked the oxygen from the conservation movement， Conservationists， who have done tremendous good over the past half-century protecting and restoring a few wild ecosystems， and encouraging local people to support and value them， risk being betrayed the new politicized climate campaigners， whose passion for renewable energy is eating into those very ecosystems and drawing funds away from their efforts。" （pg。 339）"I have presented the case for sunny optimism。 I have argued that now the world is networked， and ideas are having sex with each other more promiscuously than ever， the pace of innovation will redouble and economic evolution will raise the living standards of the twenty-first century to unimagined heights， helping even the poorest people of the world to afford to meet their desires as well as their needs。 I have argued that although such optimism is distinctly unfashionable， history suggests it is actually a more realistic attitude than apocalyptic pessimism。 。 。 。 "It is precisely because there is still far more suffering and scarcity in the world than I or anybody else with a heart would wish that ambitious optimism is morally mandatory。 。 。 。 "It is precisely this 'evitable' misery that is the reason for pressing on urgently with economic progress， innovation and change， the only known way of bringing the benefits of a rising living standard to many more people。 It is precisely because there is so much poverty， hunger and illness that the world must be very careful not to get in the way of the things that have bettered so many lives already—the tools of trade， technology， and trust， of specialisation and exchange。 It is precisely because there is still so much further to go that those who offer counsels of despair or calls to slow down in the face of looming environmental disaster may be not only factually but morally wrong。 。 。 。 "We consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered。" （pgs 352-354） 。。。more
Raymond Klucik
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Matt Ridley did the unthinkable in making me appreciate fossil fuels。 The book started out many years ago， not unlike Sapiens， and stepped through history to illustrate how humans started to specialize in crafts and then traded said crafts to enrich their lives。 Why did the Neanderthals die out？ Was it because they didn’t trade？ Perhaps argues Ridley。 All the while Ridley points out the positive aspects of our lives and explains how everyone is essentially working for you。 A great intro to Adam Matt Ridley did the unthinkable in making me appreciate fossil fuels。 The book started out many years ago， not unlike Sapiens， and stepped through history to illustrate how humans started to specialize in crafts and then traded said crafts to enrich their lives。 Why did the Neanderthals die out？ Was it because they didn’t trade？ Perhaps argues Ridley。 All the while Ridley points out the positive aspects of our lives and explains how everyone is essentially working for you。 A great intro to Adam Smith （next on my list） and the concepts of capital from the origins of agriculture。 Not all things that Ridley brings up are positive， he has his biases， for example he takes every opportunity to drag organic foods， wind turbines and biofuel through the mud every chance he gets， oh and don’t forget to toss in the environmentalists and their social pressure and other “loser” renewables as well。 Lifting my head from hours of doomscrolling Twitter during the Pandemic， it is refreshing to read a book where the author assures us the world will not go up in flames， or drown in salty seas among dead polar bears。 He assures us the hype of the dangers of the world are over-blown and to be ignored。 I believe at times a sprinkle of hysteria is warranted to light a fire under societies ass to react to the things around them。 I appreciate what fossil fuels have done for us hitherto but Solar， Nuclear and energy independence is the path forward。 Highly recommend this to someone who values energy， optimism， and seeks to understand human behaviors and the big picture。 Bravo。 。。。more
Kingb716
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Ridley's personal vendetta against renewables is on display but can be taken in stride by a reader who otherwise enjoys a great deal of dispassionate science applied to an emotionally charged topic。 Ridley's personal vendetta against renewables is on display but can be taken in stride by a reader who otherwise enjoys a great deal of dispassionate science applied to an emotionally charged topic。 。。。more
Kareen
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5 estrellas para este gran libro q me a dejado con grandes esperanzas de q no todo está mal o echado a perder y q tenemos un gran futuro por delante。
David
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Some good ideas， especially in the early chapters that examine the rise of modern civilization and it's progress across the millennia。 Unfortunately this quickly degenerates into a neoliberal/libertarian pro-business/anti-government screed。 He then [rightly] condemns the doomerism （although he doesn't call it that） that prevails in contemporary media， but ruins his argument by poo-pooing the threat of a global pandemic （I wonder what he now thinks about Covid-19）， and by completely denying the t Some good ideas， especially in the early chapters that examine the rise of modern civilization and it's progress across the millennia。 Unfortunately this quickly degenerates into a neoliberal/libertarian pro-business/anti-government screed。 He then [rightly] condemns the doomerism （although he doesn't call it that） that prevails in contemporary media， but ruins his argument by poo-pooing the threat of a global pandemic （I wonder what he now thinks about Covid-19）， and by completely denying the threat of climate change。 The more recent Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason， Science， Humanism， and Progress and Rationality: What It Is， Why It Seems Scarce， Why It Matters by Steven Pinker do a much better job of making the case for both rationality and optimism， and Yuval Noah Harari in putting the history of our species and its relationship to the world at large。 That said， I think this book might have some usefulness in convincing a more conservative audience that the world isn't going to hell。 They will find the the pro-fossil fuel and anti-leftist attitudes appealing， and hopefully will be open to hearing some of the other positive messages regarding protectionism， isolationism， xenophobia， and authoritarianism。 。。。more
Jonathan Waite
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Poorly titled book when optimism really more of a tangential topic。 Maybe "Don't believe the hype"？ I mean it's more about debunking/disbelieving the alarmists， which is a very valid point （alarmists exaggerate and fudge the #s in the name of evangelizing）。 However， alarmists do play a role in technological advancement （chicken little becomes the wheel that gets greased）。 I feel that his die on the sword attack against climate science is anti-progress in some respects。 Sure， challenge the new te Poorly titled book when optimism really more of a tangential topic。 Maybe "Don't believe the hype"？ I mean it's more about debunking/disbelieving the alarmists， which is a very valid point （alarmists exaggerate and fudge the #s in the name of evangelizing）。 However， alarmists do play a role in technological advancement （chicken little becomes the wheel that gets greased）。 I feel that his die on the sword attack against climate science is anti-progress in some respects。 Sure， challenge the new technology if you think it's non productive but don't stifle innovation as a whole because it's not perfect。 Innovation takes time to develop。 It's like he's saying fossil fuels is the end all， be all final technological advancement required in energy production。Otherwise great overview of the importance of Ricardo's principles of specialization and the societal benefit of trade。 That is enough to recommend to the younger generation， which is blinded by envy and today's academic priests whose brand of socialism is built on taking what others build because "fairness"。If you're looking for optimism vis a vis our society， Factfulness by Hans Rosling is the better option。 。。。more
Charlie Edwards
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4。5 stars
Scott
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I enjoyed the first part - generally affirming points similar to Hans Rosling and Steven Pinker and cringed at the later parts brushing off existential risks to humanity （pandemic disease and global warming）。 It’s a world view like the one a passenger on a plane must take - trusting that human ingenuity will prevail， but not the world view you’d hope is held by the pilot - the immense weight of responsibility to soberly measure risks and contingency plan。
Nathan
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This book caused me to rethink my views on organic foods and climate change — all pivots to more politically centrist positions。 Highly recommend。
Rajasegar
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This book is surely going to demolish the ultra-pessimist in you， for the optimism arrived in here is not due to temperament and instinct but by looking at the evidence。 The idea of exchange and specialization from the early times of the human civilization is going to shake your conventional beliefs about everything from technology， organic farming to climate change。
Caleb Anderson
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I really liked this。 Maybe because it confirmed a lot of my priors。 I get shucked into negativity a lot and after reading this I have thought a lot more about how negativity gets the attention and sells which affects how much is out there。 Also， trade matters。
Richard Hume
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Evolution is organisms having sex and then culling mutations for progress which occurs over generations in time。Culture and innovation are ideas having sex and consistently making progress which occurs over much smaller periods of time to evolution。Ridley argues that humanity is on a constant compounding pattern of progression。 As much as there are issues in the world which need to be solved and have time， money and attention brought to them。 His argument is that given the previous progression w Evolution is organisms having sex and then culling mutations for progress which occurs over generations in time。Culture and innovation are ideas having sex and consistently making progress which occurs over much smaller periods of time to evolution。Ridley argues that humanity is on a constant compounding pattern of progression。 As much as there are issues in the world which need to be solved and have time， money and attention brought to them。 His argument is that given the previous progression which is constantly occuring， we should go about our lives with an optimistic mindset。There's never been a time where people are more well fed， are held more accountable to their people， have better healthcare， better shelter， better education， better so many things to list that I won't keep ranting。 I liked the combination of economics， politics and history which all had sex to provide a better future in the form of Ridley's Rational Optimist。 。。。more
Evan Segaul
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This book very much reframed my ideas on what a society is based on and what it can do to succeed。 It paints an extremely interesting picture in what sets humans apart and how we can play to those strengths
Raj Shah
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The writings on fossil fuels， free market were incredible。 Started reading cuz Naval recommended it but goddamn finished it of my own volition。
psychonout
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This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Put it another way， an hour of work today earns you 300 days’ worth of reading light; an hour of work in 1800 earned you ten minutes of reading light。----------------I hold no brief for large corporations， whose inefficiencies， complacencies and anti-competitive tendencies often drive me as crazy as the next man。 Like Milton Friedman， I notice that ‘business corporations in general are not defenders of free enterprise。 On the contrary， they are one of the chief sources of danger。’ They are addic Put it another way， an hour of work today earns you 300 days’ worth of reading light; an hour of work in 1800 earned you ten minutes of reading light。----------------I hold no brief for large corporations， whose inefficiencies， complacencies and anti-competitive tendencies often drive me as crazy as the next man。 Like Milton Friedman， I notice that ‘business corporations in general are not defenders of free enterprise。 On the contrary， they are one of the chief sources of danger。’ They are addicted to corporate welfare， they love regulations that erect barriers to entry to their small competitors， they yearn for monopoly and they grow flabby and inefficient with age。----------------Conventional wisdom has probably underestimated the extent of specialisation and trade in the Neolithic age。 There is a tendency to think that everybody was a farmer。 But in Oetzi’s world， there were farmers who grew einkorn and maybe farmers who grew grass for weaving into cloaks; coppersmiths who made axes and maybe bear hunters who made hats and shoes。 And yet there were things that Oetzi no doubt made for himself: his bow was unfinished and so were some of his arrows。----------------Imagine that: an immense expansion of wilderness throughout the world by 2050。 It’s a wonderful goal and one that can only be brought about by further intensification and change， not by retreat and organic subsistence。 Indeed， come to think of it， let’s make farming a multi-storey business， with hydroponic drip-irrigation and electric lighting producing food year-round on derelict urban sites linked by conveyor belt directly to supermarkets。 Let’s pay for the buildings and the electricity by granting the developer tax breaks for retiring farmland elsewhere into forest， swamp or savannah。 It is an uplifting and thrilling ideal----------------If the world decides， as it crazily started to do in the early 2000s， that it wants to grow its motor fuel in fields rather than extract it from oil wells， then again the acreage under the plough will have to balloon。 And good night rainforests。 But as long as some sanity prevails， then yes， my grandchildren can both eat well and visit larger and wilder nature reserves than I can。 It is a vision I am happy to strive for。 Intensive yields are the way to get there。----------------Should the world decide to go organic – that is， should farming get its nitrogen from plants and fish rather than direct from the air using factories and fossil fuels – then many of the nine billion will starve and all rainforests will be cut down。 Yes， I wrote ‘all’。 Organic farming is low-yield， whether you like it or not。 The reason for this is simple chemistry。 Since organic farming eschews all synthetic fertiliser， it exhausts the mineral nutrients in the soil – especially phosphorus and potassium， but eventually also sulphur， calcium and manganese。 It gets round this problem by adding crushed rock or squashed fish to the soil。 These have to be mined or netted。 Its main problem， though， is nitrogen deficiency， which it can reverse by growing legumes （clover， alfalfa or beans）， which fix nitrogen from the air， and either ploughing them into the soil or feeding them to cattle whose manure is then ploughed into the soil。 With such help a particular organic plot can match non-organic yields， but only by using extra land elsewhere to grow the legumes and feed the cattle， effectively doubling the area under the plough。 Conventional farming， by contrast， gets its nitrogen from what are in effect point sources – factories， which fix it from the air----------------There is one respect in which the environmental critique of modern agriculture has force。 In the pursuit of quantity， science may have sacrificed nutritional quality of food。 Indeed， the twentieth-century drive to provide a growing population with an ever faster-growing supply of calories has succeeded so magnificently that the diseases caused by too much bland food are rampant: obesity， heart disease， diabetes， and perhaps depression。 For example， modern plant oils and plentiful red meat make for a diet low in omega-3 fatty acids， which may contribute to heart disease; modern wheat flour is rich in amylopectin starch， which may contribute to insulin resistance and hence diabetes; and maize is especially low in the amino acid tryptophan， a precursor of serotonin， the ‘feel-good’ neurotransmitter。 Consumers will rightly be looking to the next generation of plant varieties to redress these deficiencies。 They could do so by eating more fish， fruit and vegetables。 But not only would this be a land-hungry option， it would suit the wealthy more than the poor， so it would exacerbate health inequalities。 Arguing against vitamin-enriched rice， the Indian activist Vandana Shiva， echoing Marie-Antoinette， recommended that Indians should eat more meat， spinach and mangoes rather than relying on golden rice----------------A Bronze Age empire stagnated for much the same reason that a nationalised industry stagnates: monopoly rewards caution and discourages experiment， the income is gradually captured by the interests of the producers at the expense of the interests of the consumers， and so on。 The list of innovations achieved by the pharaohs is as thin as the list of innovations achieved by British Rail or the US Postal Service。----------------The chief reason is surely that strong governments are， by definition， monopolies and monopolies always grow complacent， stagnant and self-serving----------------Terence Kealey points out that entrepreneurs are rational and if they find that wealth can more easily be stolen than created， then they will steal it: ‘Humanity’s great battle over the last 10，000 years has been the battle against monopoly。----------------Pause， first， to admire the exuberance。 China’s best moments came when it was fragmented， not united。 The economy first truly prospered in the unstable Zhou dynasty of the first millennium BC。 Later， after the Han empire fell apart in AD 220， the Three Kingdoms period saw a flourishing of culture and technology。 When the Tang empire came to an end in 907， and the ‘Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms’ fought each other incessantly， China experienced its most spectacular burst of invention and prosperity yet， which the Song dynasty inherited。 Even the rebirth of China in the late twentieth century owes much to the fragmentation of government and to an explosion of local autonomy。 The burst of economic activity in China after 1978 was driven by ‘township and village enterprises’， agencies of the government given local freedom to start companies。 One of the paradoxical features of modern China is the weakness of a central， would-be authoritarian government----------------Empires， indeed governments generally， tend to be good things at first and bad things the longer they last。 First they improve society’s ability to flourish by providing central services and removing impediments to trade and specialisation; thus， even Genghis Khan’s Pax Mongolica lubricated Asia’s overland trade by exterminating brigands along the Silk Road， thus lowering the cost of oriental goods in European parlours。 But then， as Peter Turchin argues following the lead of the medieval geographer Ibn Khaldun， governments gradually employ more and more ambitious elites who capture a greater and greater share of the society’s income by interfering more and more in people’s lives as they give themselves more and more rules to enforce， until they kill the goose that lays the golden eggs。 There is a lesson for today。 Economists are quick to speak of ‘market failure’， and rightly so， but a greater threat comes from ‘government failure’。 Because it is a monopoly， government brings inefficiency and stagnation to most things it runs; government agencies pursue the inflation of their budgets rather than the service of their customers; pressure groups form an unholy alliance with agencies to extract more money from taxpayers for their members。 Yet despite all this， most clever people still call for government to run more things and assume that if it did so， it would somehow be more perfect， more selfless， next time。---------------- As Etienne Balazs put it:The reach of the Moloch-state， the omnipotence of the bureaucracy， goes much further。 There are clothing regulations， a regulation of public and private construction （dimensions of houses）; the colours one wears， the music one hears， the festivals – all are regulated。 There are rules for birth and rules for death; the providential State watches minutely over every step of its subjects， from cradle to grave。 It is a regime of paperwork and harassment， endless paperwork and endless harassment。---------------- a modern Indian woman why she wants to leave her rural village for a Mumbai slum。 Because the city， for all its dangers and squalor， represents opportunity， the chance to escape from the village of her birth， where there is drudgery without wages， suffocating family control and where work happens in the merciless heat of the sun or the drenching downpour of the monsoon。----------------But remarkably few people seem to know that the rate of increase in world population has been falling since the early 1960s and that the raw number of new people added each year has been falling since the late 1980s。 As the environmentalist Stewart Brand puts it， ‘Most environmentalists still haven’t got the word。 Worldwide， birth-rates are in free fall 。。。 On every part of every continent and in every culture （even Mormon）， birth rates are headed down。 They reach replacement level and keep on dropping。’ This is happening despite people living longer and thus swelling the ranks of the world population for longer， and despite the fact that babies are no longer dying as frequently as they did in the early twentieth century。 Population growth is slowing even while death rates are falling。----------------Certainly， the correlation between widespread female education and low birth rate is pretty tight， and the high fecundity of many Arab countries must in part reflect women’s relative lack of control over their own lives。 Probably by far the best policy for reducing population is to encourage female education。 It is evolutionarily plausible that in the human species， females want to have relatively few children and give them high-quality upbringing， whereas males like to have lots of children and care less about the quality of their upbringing。 So the empowerment of women through education gives them the upper hand----------------Imagine yourself at the Vienna exhibition of 1873。 There is a stand exhibiting the work of the splendidly named semi-literate Belgian inventor Zénobe Théophile Gramme， and it is manned by his business partner， the equally euphonious French engineer Hippolyte Fontaine。 They are showing off the Gramme dynamo， the first electricity generator that can produce a smooth current， and a steady light， when set spinning by hand or by a steam engine。 Over the next five years， their dynamos will power hundreds of new industrial lighting installations all over Paris。 In the Vienna exhibition， one of the workmen makes a careless mistake。 He connects the wires from the spinning dynamo accidentally to the spare dynamo that is there to provide a backup in case the first one fails。 The reserve dynamo immediately begins to spin all by itself， in effect it becomes a motor。 Fontaine’s mind starts spinning too。 He calls for the longest wire that can be found and connects the two dynamos by a wire that is 250 metres long。 The reserve dynamo springs to life as soon as it is connected。 Suddenly it became clear that electricity can transmit power over a distance far greater than belts， chains or cogs could----------------Today， the average person on the planet consumes power at the rate of about 2，500 watts， or to put it a different way， uses 600 calories per second。 About 85 per cent of that comes from burning coal， oil and gas， the rest from nuclear and hydro （wind， solar and biomass are mere asterisks on the chart， as is the food you eat）。 Since a reasonably fit person on an exercise bicycle can generate about fifty watts， this means that it would take 150 slaves， working eight-hour shifts each， to peddle you to your current lifestyle。 （Americans would need 660 slaves， French 360 and Nigerians 16。） Next time you lament human dependence on fossil fuels， pause to imagine that for every family of four you see in the street， there should be 600 unpaid slaves back home， living in abject poverty: if they had any better lifestyle they would need their own slaves。 That is close to a trillion people。---------------- ‘The chaos will prevail in the end， but it is our mission to postpone that day for as long as we can and to push things in the opposite direction with all the ingenuity and determination we can muster。 Energy isn’t the problem。 Energy is the solution。’----------------As the economist Eamonn Butler puts it， the ‘perfect market is not just an abstraction; it’s plain daft 。。。 Whenever you see the word equilibrium in a textbook， blot it out。’ It is wrong because it assumes perfect competition， perfect knowledge and perfect rationality， none of which do or can exist。 It is the planned economy， not the market， that requires perfect knowledge。----------------Take the place where I am sitting。 Supposedly， its climax vegetation is oak forest， but the oaks only arrived a few thousand years ago， replacing the pines， the birch and before that the tundra。 Just 18，000 years ago， where I sit was under a mile of ice， and 120，000 years ago it was a steaming swamp complete with hippos。 Which of these is its ‘natural’ state？----------------Very roughly， the best industry to be in as an innovator was: 1800 – textiles; 1830 – railways; 1860 – chemicals; 1890 – electricity; 1920 – cars; 1950 – aeroplanes; 1980 – computers; 2010 – the web。 ----------------Likewise， when the credit card took off in California in the 1960s， driven by Joseph Williams of Bank of America， there was nothing new about buying on credit。 It was as old as Babylon。 There was not even anything new about charge cards---------------- nicely captures the paradox of the modern world， that people embrace technological change and hate it at the same time。 ‘People don’t like change，’ Michael Crichton once told me， ‘and the notion that technology is exciting is true for only a handful of people。 The rest are depressed or annoyed by the changes。’ Pity the inventor’s lot then。 He is the source of society’s enrichment and yet nobody likes what he does。 ‘When a new invention is first propounded，’ said William Petty in 1679， ‘in the beginning every man objects and the poor inventor runs the gauntloop of all petulant wits----------------Any man of genius is paralysed immediately by the thought that his efforts will bring him punishment rather than rewards。’----------------Though they may start out full of entrepreneurial zeal， once firms or bureaucracies grow large， they become risk-averse to the point of Luddism。 The pioneer venture capitalist Georges Doriot said that the most dangerous moment in the life of a company was when it had succeeded， for then it stopped innovating。 ‘This telephone has too many shortcomings to be considered as a means of communication。 The device is of inherently no value to us，’ read a Western Union internal memo in 1876。 That is why Apple， not IBM， perfected the personal computer， why the Wright brothers， not the French army， invented powered flight， why Jonas Salk， not the British National Health Service， invented a polio vaccine， why Amazon， not the Post Office， invented one-click ordering and why a Finnish lumber-supply company， not a national telephone monopoly， became the world leader in mobile telephony。----------------As the economist Paul Romer has argued， human progress consists largely in accumulating recipes for rearranging atoms in ways that raise living standards。 The recipe for a bicycle， greatly abridged， might read like this: take some iron， chromium and aluminium ore from the earth， some sap from a tropical tree， some oil from beneath the ground， some hide from a cow。 Smelt the ores into metals， and cast into various shapes。 Vulcanise the sap into rubber and mould into hollow circular rings。 Fractionate the oil to make plastic and mould。 Set aside to cool。 Mould the hide into the shape of a seat。 Combine the ingredients in the form of a bicycle， add the startlingly counter-intuitive discovery that things don’t fall over so easily when they are moving forwards， and ride。----------------Even back in the golden age itself， in the eighth century BC， the poet Hesiod was nostalgic for a lost golden age when people ‘dwelt in ease and peace upon their lands with many good things’。----------------Pessimism has always been big box office。 It plays into what Greg Easterbrook calls ‘the collective refusal to believe that life is getting better’。 ----------------Sweden’s government eventually admitted that nitric acid – a fertiliser – had increased the overall growth rate of its trees。 European forests not only did not die; they thrived。<。。。>The fact is， if you read the history of the episode carefully， acid rain was a minor and local nuisance that could be relatively cheaply dealt with， not a huge threat to large stretches of the planet。 The ultra-pessimists were simply wrong----------------Remember that every year fifty to sixty million people die: even going by the GHF figures less than 1 per cent of those die from climate change。----------------species – the cheer pheasant and the lesser florican。 But the threats to species are all too prosaic: habitat loss， pollution， invasive competitors and hunting being the same four horsemen of the ecological apocalypse as always。 Suddenly many of the big environmental organisations have lost interest in these threats as they chase the illusion of stabilising a climate that was never stable in the past。 It is as if the recent emphasis on climate change has sucked the oxygen from the conservation movement。 Conservationists， who have done tremendous good over the past half-century protecting and restoring a few wild ecosystems， and encouraging local people to support and value them， risk being betrayed by the new politicised climate campaigners， whose passion for renewable energy is eating into those very ecosystems and drawing funds away from their efforts。----------------The way to choose which of these technologies to adopt is probably to enact a heavy carbon tax， and cut payroll taxes （National Insurance in Britain） to the same extent。 That would encourage employment and discourage carbon emissions。 The way not to get there is to pick losers， like wind and biofuel， to reward speculators in carbon credits and to load the economy with rules， restrictions， subsidies， distortions and corruption。 When I look at the politics of emissions reduction， my optimism wobbles。 The Copenhagen conference of December 2009 came worryingly close to imposing a corruptible and futile system of carbon rationing， which would have hurt the poor， damaged ecosystems and rewarded bootleggers and dictators----------------Every generation has perceived the limits to growth that finite resources and undesirable side effects would pose if no new recipes or ideas were discovered。 And every generation has underestimated the potential for finding new recipes and ideas。 We consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered。’ By far the most dangerous， and indeed unsustainable thing the human race could do to itself would be to turn off the innovation tap。 Not inventing， and not adopting new ideas， can itself be both dangerous and immoral 。。。more
Ellen
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Interesting thesis and he backs it up。 This book fiend really stand the test of time， though。 His argument is that in the collective we tend to do the right thing even though individuals don’t。 I would argue that the response to the pandemic and the deterioration of voting rights both show us the opposite。 In those examples we have small local entities overriding the good of the whole。 To imagine that a local public health officer would be in charge of the entire pandemic relief is just ridiculo Interesting thesis and he backs it up。 This book fiend really stand the test of time， though。 His argument is that in the collective we tend to do the right thing even though individuals don’t。 I would argue that the response to the pandemic and the deterioration of voting rights both show us the opposite。 In those examples we have small local entities overriding the good of the whole。 To imagine that a local public health officer would be in charge of the entire pandemic relief is just ridiculous and then to have an entity like the CDC have essentially no power。 Further， we’ve seen how the health care system just doesn’t make sense。 。。。more
Tim Schmitz
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Any one interested in learning more about how the world really works， needs to read this book。 I have supported environmental improvements for many years now including protection of ocean and terrestrial life systems and carbon reduction。 After reading this book， I have realized I have become very one sided in my views and missing the "big picture" perspective。 While I still put much effort into preserving nature， this author has helped me increase my perspective and to become more of a "rationa Any one interested in learning more about how the world really works， needs to read this book。 I have supported environmental improvements for many years now including protection of ocean and terrestrial life systems and carbon reduction。 After reading this book， I have realized I have become very one sided in my views and missing the "big picture" perspective。 While I still put much effort into preserving nature， this author has helped me increase my perspective and to become more of a "rational optimist" myself。 。。。more
Penni
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One of the better books I've read in a while， albeit slightly outdated， （about privatization of space travel， pamdemics）。 I'd love to hear what Ridley has to say about COVID， and apparently he has a book coming out on the topic。For each apocalyptic （made by apocaholics， haha） prophecy， the world righted itself and the apocalypse didn’t come。 Not because the prediction wasn’t true， but because the predictions are always “with all things remaining the same”， which it never does。Just when we’re abo One of the better books I've read in a while， albeit slightly outdated， （about privatization of space travel， pamdemics）。 I'd love to hear what Ridley has to say about COVID， and apparently he has a book coming out on the topic。For each apocalyptic （made by apocaholics， haha） prophecy， the world righted itself and the apocalypse didn’t come。 Not because the prediction wasn’t true， but because the predictions are always “with all things remaining the same”， which it never does。Just when we’re about to be 10 feet deep in horse manure， the car comes around。Just when the world is about to be reset by Y2K， better code， better software comes around， and， nothing。 The world goes on。He especially goes on about climate change， which is the next big apocalypse-However， if the world becomes a poorer place， there will be less emissions， and if the world becomes a more prosperous place （which is far more likely） then there will be enough resources to solve for it。“Don’t stop the nose bleed by tying a tourniquet around our necks”。And finally:The question is not 'can we go on as we are？' Because of course the answer is 'No'， but how best can we encourage the necessary torrent of change that will enable the Chinese and the Indians and even the Africans to live as prosperously as Americans do today。 。。。more
Mohamed Almahdi
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